@article {Shapiro036780, author = {B. Jesse Shapiro}, title = {How clonal are bacteria over time?}, elocation-id = {036780}, year = {2016}, doi = {10.1101/036780}, publisher = {Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory}, abstract = {Bacteria and archaea reproduce clonally (vertically), but exchange genes by recombination (horizontal transfer). Recombination allows adaptive mutations or genes to spread within (or between) species. Clonality - the balance between vertical and horizontal inheritance - is therefore a key microbial trait, determining how quickly a population can adapt. Here, I consider whether clonality can be considered a stable trait of a given population. In some cases, clonality changes over time: non-clonal (recombining) populations can give rise to clonal expansions. However, an analysis of time-course metagenomic data suggests that a bacterial population{\textquoteright}s past clonality is indicative of its future clonality. Thus, a population{\textquoteright}s evolutionary potential - whether it is likely to retain genetic diversity or not - can in principle be predicted from its past.}, URL = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/01/15/036780}, eprint = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/01/15/036780.full.pdf}, journal = {bioRxiv} }