RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Potential impact of sexual transmission of Ebola virus on the epidemic in West Africa
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 031880
DO 10.1101/031880
A1 Jessica L. Abbate
A1 Carmen Lia Murall
A1 Heinz Richner
A1 Christian L. Althaus
YR 2015
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2015/12/04/031880.abstract
AB Ebola virus RNA can persist in seminal fluids of male convalescent patients after they recover from Ebola virus disease (EVD). We developed a novel compartmental EVD transmission model, Monte Carlo simulations, and performed sensitivity analyses to assess the potential impact of sexual transmission on the epidemic dynamics. Though few extra cases are expected due to sexual transmission from male survivors, the length of the epidemic tail is significantly affected. Fitting the model to weekly incidence data from Sierra Leone, we found that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a convalescence period of 3 and 6 months could extend the EVD epidemic by 83 days (95% CI: 68–98 days) and 540 days (95% CI: 508–572 days), respectively. The latter would double the current length of the epidemic in Sierra Leone and highlights the importance of ongoing surveillance efforts in West Africa.