RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Recent Greater Sage Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) Population Dynamics in Wyoming Are Primarily Driven by Climate, not Oil and Gas Development JF bioRxiv FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory SP 028274 DO 10.1101/028274 A1 Rob R. Ramey II A1 Joseph L. Thorley A1 Alexander S. Ivey YR 2015 UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2015/10/04/028274.abstract AB Effective conservation of a species requires an understanding of how human activities influence population abundance. The greater sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a large tetraonid that is endemic to the sagebrush (Artemisia spp) habitat of western North America. A host of studies have documented the local effects of oil and gas development on greater sage grouse densities, movement, stress-levels and fitness components. However, to the best of our knowledge no one has tested whether greater sage grouse population level responses to oil and gas are consistent with the outcomes predicted by extrapolation of the results of the local studies. To test whether oil and gas results in a population-level response, hierarchical Bayesian state-space models were fitted to lek count data from Wyoming from the mid 1990s to 2012. The models indicate that climate, as indexed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, is the primary driver of sage grouse population dynamics across the state, explaining between 63% and 77% of the variance. Oil and gas development was not a significant driver, explaining 3% or less of the variance. Large-scale, open, collaborative, reproducible research is needed to ensure future decisions regarding oil and gas development have the intended consequences for sage grouse populations.