RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 A risk assessment framework for seed degeneration: Informing an integrated seed health strategy for vegetatively-propagated crops
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 105361
DO 10.1101/105361
A1 S. Thomas-Sharma
A1 J. Andrade-Piedra
A1 M. Carvajal Yepes
A1 J. F. Hernandez Nopsa
A1 M. J. Jeger
A1 R. A. C. Jones
A1 P. Kromann
A1 J. P. Legg
A1 J. Yuen
A1 G. A. Forbes
A1 K. A. Garrett
YR 2017
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/02/03/105361.abstract
AB Pathogen build-up in vegetative planting material, termed seed degeneration, is a major problem in many low-income countries. When smallholder farmers use seed produced on-farm or acquired outside certified programs, it is often infected. We introduce a risk assessment framework for seed degeneration, evaluating the relative performance of individual and combined components of an integrated seed health strategy. The frequency distribution of management performance outcomes was evaluated for models incorporating biological and environmental heterogeneity, with the following results. (1) On-farm seed selection can perform as well as certified seed, if the rate of success in selecting healthy plants for seed production is high; (2) When choosing among within-season management strategies, external inoculum can determine the relative usefulness of ‘incidence-altering management’ (affecting the proportion of diseased plants/seeds) and rate-altering management (affecting the rate of disease transmission in the field); (3) Under severe disease scenarios, where it is difficult to implement management components at high levels of effectiveness, combining management components can produce synergistic benefits and keep seed degeneration below a threshold; (4) Combining management components can also close the yield gap between average and worst-case scenarios. We also illustrate the potential for expert elicitation to provide parameter estimates when data are unavailable.