TY - JOUR T1 - Fitting the Balding-Nichols model to forensic databases JF - bioRxiv DO - 10.1101/009969 SP - 009969 AU - Rori V. Rohlfs AU - Vitor R. C. Aguiar AU - Kirk E. Lohmueller AU - Amanda M. Castro AU - Alessandro C. S. Ferreira AU - Vanessa C. O. Almeida AU - Iuri D. Louro AU - Rasmus Nielsen Y1 - 2014/01/01 UR - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2014/10/03/009969.abstract N2 - Large forensic databases provide an opportunity to compare observed empirical rates of genotype matching with those expected under forensic genetic models. A number of researchers have taken advantage of this opportunity to validate some forensic genetic approaches, particularly to ensure that estimated rates of genotype matching between unrelated individuals are indeed slight overestimates of those observed. However, these studies have also revealed systematic error trends in genotype probability estimates. In this analysis, we investigate these error trends and show how the specific implementation of the Balding-Nichols model must be considered when applied to database-wide matching. Specifically, we show that in addition to accounting for increased allelic matching between individuals with recent shared ancestry, studies must account for relatively decreased allelic matching between individuals with more ancient shared ancestry. ER -