TY - JOUR T1 - A cascade of destabilizations: combining <em>Wolbachia</em> and Allee effects to eradicate insect pests JF - bioRxiv DO - 10.1101/064774 SP - 064774 AU - Julie C. Blackwood AU - Roger Vargas, Jr. AU - Xavier Fauvergue Y1 - 2016/01/01 UR - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/11/21/064774.abstract N2 - The management of insect pests has long been dominated by the use of chemical insecticides, with the aim of instantaneously killing enough individuals to limit their damage. To minimize unwanted consequences, environmentally friendly approaches propose biological controls that take advantage of intrinsic demographic processes to eliminate pest populations.We address the feasibility of a novel pest management strategy based on the release of insects infected with Wolbachia, which causes cytoplasmic incompatibilities in its host population, into a population with a pre-existing Allee effect. Successful invasion of Wolbachia leads to transient declines in population size, and this can theoretically trigger extinction if the population is brought below its Allee threshold.We developed a stochastic population model that accounts for Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibilities in addition to an Allee effect arising from mating failures at low population densities. Using our model, we identify conditions under which cytoplasmic incompatibilities and Allee effects successfully interact to drive insect pest populations toward extinction. Based on our results, we delineate control strategies based on introductions of Wolbachia-infected insects.We extend this analysis to evaluate control strategies that implement successive introductions of two incompatible Wolbachia strains. Additionally, we consider methods that combine Wolbachia invasion with mating disruption tactics that enhance the pre-existing Allee effect.We demonstrate that Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibility and the Allee effect act independently from one another: the Allee effect does not modify the Wolbachia-invasion threshold, and cytoplasmic incompatibilities only have a marginal effect on the Allee threshold. However, the interaction of these two processes can drive even large populations to extinction. The success of this method is amplified by the introduction of multiple Wolbachia cytotypes as well as the addition of mating disruption.Our study provides novel and translational ideas for the use of cytoplasmic incompatibility and the Allee effect to eradicate insect pests. More generally, it points to the importance of transient dynamics, and the relevance of manipulating a cascade of destabilizatons for pest management. ER -