TY - JOUR T1 - Collider Scope: How selection bias can induce spurious associations JF - bioRxiv DO - 10.1101/079707 SP - 079707 AU - Marcus R. Munafò AU - Kate Tilling AU - Amy E. Taylor AU - David M. Evans AU - George Davey Smith Y1 - 2016/01/01 UR - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/10/07/079707.abstract N2 - Large-scale cross-sectional and cohort studies have transformed our understanding of the genetic and environmental determinants of health outcomes. However, the representativeness of these samples may be limited – either through selection into studies, or by attrition from studies over time. Here we explore the potential impact of this selection bias on results obtained from these studies. While it is acknowledged that selection bias will have a strong effect on representativeness and prevalence estimates, it is often assumed that it should not have a strong impact on estimates of associations. We argue that because selection can induce collider bias (which occurs when two variables independently influence a third variable, and that variable is conditioned upon), selection can lead to biased estimates of associations. In particular, selection related to phenotypes can bias associations with genetic variants associated with those phenotypes. In simulations, we show that even modest influences on selection into or attrition from a study can generate biased and potentially misleading estimates of both phenotypic and genotypic associations. Our results highlight the value of representative birth cohorts. Having DNA available on most participants at birth at least offers the possibility of investigating the extent to which polygenic scores predict subsequent participation, which in turn would enable sensitivity analyses of the extent to which bias might distort estimates. ER -