TY - JOUR T1 - Projected spread of Zika virus in the Americas JF - bioRxiv DO - 10.1101/066456 SP - 066456 AU - Qian Zhang AU - Kaiyuan Sun AU - Matteo Chinazzi AU - Ana Pastore-Piontti AU - Natalie E. Dean AU - Diana Patricia Rojas AU - Stefano Merler AU - Dina Mistry AU - Piero Poletti AU - Luca Rossi AU - Margaret Bray AU - M. Elizabeth Halloran AU - Ira M. Longini, Jr. AU - Alessandro Vespignani Y1 - 2016/01/01 UR - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/07/29/066456.abstract N2 - We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to project past and future spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution, and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014. We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through December 2016. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of cases of microcephaly assuming three levels of risk associated with ZIKV infection during the first trimester of pregnancy. Our approach represents an early modeling effort aimed at projecting the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic that might be refined as new and more accurate data from the region will be available. ER -