RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Zika in Rio de Janeiro: Assessment of basic reproductive number and its comparison with dengue
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 055475
DO 10.1101/055475
A1 Leonardo S Bastos
A1 Daniel AM Villela
A1 Luiz Max de Carvalho
A1 Oswaldo G Cruz
A1 Marcelo FC Gomes
A1 Betina Durovni
A1 Maria Cristina Lemos
A1 Valeria Saraceni
A1 Flavio C Coelho
A1 Claudia T Codeço
YR 2016
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/05/25/055475.abstract
AB Zika virus infection was declared a public health emergency of international concern in February 2016 in response to the outbreak in Brazil and its suspected link with congenital anomalies. In this study we use early notification data and disease natural history parameters to estimate the basic reproductive number ℜ0. Our estimates of the basic reproductive number for Zika in Rio de Janeiro (ℜ0 = 3.9, 95% CI: 3.1 – 5.3) were higher than those obtained for dengue using data from two early epidemics in the city (year 2002: 2.5 [2.1 – 3.1]; year 2012: 1.5 [1.4 – 1.8]). Given the role of Aedes aegypti as an arbovirus vector, we also assessed the ℜ0 of Zika given entomological and epidemiological factors already reported for dengue transmission. Surprisingly, we find that Zika,s ℜ0 under a vectorial-only transmission model is lower than the basic reproductive number for dengue. These results suggest that either our current knowledge regarding the vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti as a vector for Zika is incomplete or other modes of transmission are important players in sustaining this epidemic.