RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Zika Virus: Endemic Versus Epidemic Dynamics and Implications for Disease Spread in the Americas
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 041897
DO 10.1101/041897
A1 Sharon Bewick
A1 William F. Fagan
A1 Justin Calabrese
A1 Folashade Agusto
YR 2016
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/02/29/041897.abstract
AB Since being introduced into Brazil in 2014, Zika virus (ZIKV) has spread explosively across Central and South America. Although the symptoms of ZIKV are generally mild, recent evidence suggests a relationship between prenatal exposure to ZIKV and microcephaly. This has led to widespread panic, including travel alerts and warnings to avoid pregnancy. Because ZIKV is an emerging disease, response efforts are complicated by limited understanding of disease dynamics. To this end, we develop a novel state- and class-structured compartment model for ZIKV. Our model shows that the risk of prenatal ZIKV exposure should decrease dramatically following the initial wave of disease, reaching almost undetectable levels in endemic systems. Our model also suggests that efforts to reduce ZIKV prenatal exposures through mosquito management and avoidance may have minimal benefit, and may even result in increased risk of microcephaly in later years of an outbreak.