Abstract
Efficient planning for biodiversity-related goals requires the ability to measure biodiversity’s present state, observe recent change and project potential future outcomes from predicted anthropogenic change scenarios. Indicators of biodiversity change are most often derived by intersecting changes in habitat loss or degradation with underlying patterns in biological diversity. However, the current generation of these indicators are usually derived at resolutions far coarser than the spatial grain that key ecological and anthropogenic processes they are describing interact. Concurrently, current indicators trend to focusing on data rich biological groups, ignoring the other parts of the tree of life where data are less complete. Here we introduce the methodological underpinnings to a new capability in global biodiversity assessment that is based around macroecological modelling of underlying patterns in biodiversity. Through integrating advances in macroecological modelling, biodiversity informatics, remote sensing and high-performance computing, our modelling infrastructure assesses the spatio-temporal change in biodiversity across the entire terrestrial surface of the planet at a resolution of approximately 1 km. We then use this to follow two different analysis pathways. The first pathway generates indicators of biodiversity change by overlaying modelled biodiversity pattern with observed patterns in land-use change to observe the changing status and trends in ecological communities. Our second pathway replaces observed changes with projected changes in pressures and responses into the future. This enables the translation of alternative global change scenarios into the expected consequences for future biodiversity persistence. This approach allows a more robust assessment of the status, trends and possible futures for as broad a spread of biological diversity as possible.